Outcomes from integrating anti-cervical cancer teachings into the curriculum of high schools in a South-Eastern Nigerian State.

BACKGROUND: Quests for the global elimination of cervical cancer and its related SDG goals by 2030 are achievable if realistic approaches for improving outcomes in LMICs are entrenched. Targeting teenage high schoolers in these countries, which largely lack universally-affordable anti-cervical cancer measures, can be a game-changer. This paper evaluates a 2019 Harvard-endorsed measure that integrated relevant teachings into the curricula of some Nigerian high schools, in what was a global-first. METHOD: A 12-month, quasi-experimental (pre-and-post-tests) research that evaluated the impact of the above initiative on three public schools randomly selected from a pool of 261 in South-east Nigeria. The intervention was "exposure" to anti-cervical teachings, which included "repetitions" and "examination/assessments" designed to enhance "engagement". Both genders were among the 2,498 recruited participants. Data collections with questionnaires were at three different intervals over 12 months. RESULTS: At Phase-1 (baseline), there were 1,699 (68.0%) responses, while Phases 2 (one-month post-intervention) and 4 (12-month post-intervention) had 1,797 (71.9%) and 500 (20.0%) responses, respectively. COVID-19 lockdowns washed out Phase-3 (six-month post-intervention). The majority in all groups were aged 15-19 years. Males dominated in phases 1 (55.9%) and 2 (67.3%), and females (65.6%) in Phase 4. Overall, there were increased knowledge on "General Awareness", "HPV Vaccinations", "Risk Factors" and "Symptoms", particularly between Phases 2 and 1. Levels at Phase-4 were higher than at Phase-2, with the exception of "Pap Smears", as knowledge gained in half of its assessing items became negative (reversed) at Phase-4. These observed changes were non-different between gender, age groups, and classes of high schools. Relative to Phase 2, knowledge changes at Phase-4 for questions associated with established myths ("spiritual attacks"; OR 0.39; CI 0.29-0.52 and "enemy poisons"; OR 0.49; CI 0.37-0.65) were reversed, even though they were originally increased significantly between Phases 2 and 1. CONCLUSION: Anti-cervical cancer enlightenment interventions to teenage high school students were largely effective, but appears guaranteed if engagement-enhancing measures are maintained over time. Extra efforts should be put into debunking prevailing myths.

A cost-benefit analysis framework for preventive health interventions to aid decision-making in Australian governments.

BACKGROUND: Australian governments are increasingly mandating the use of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to inform the efficient allocation of government resources. CBA is likely to be useful when evaluating preventive health interventions that are often cross-sectoral in nature and require Cabinet approval prior to implementation. This study outlines a CBA framework for the evaluation of preventive health interventions that balances the need for consistency with other agency guidelines whilst adhering to guidelines and conventions for health economic evaluations. METHODS: We analysed CBA and other evaluation guidance documents published by Australian federal and New South Wales (NSW) government departments. Data extraction compared the recommendations made by different agencies and the impact on the analysis of preventive health interventions. The framework specifies a reference case and sensitivity analyses based on the following considerations: (1) applied economic evaluation theory; (2) consistency between CBA across different government departments; (3) the ease of moving from a CBA to a more conventional cost-effectiveness/cost-utility analysis framework often used for health interventions; (4) the practicalities of application; and (5) the needs of end users being both Cabinet decision-makers and health policy-makers. RESULTS: Nine documents provided CBA or relevant economic evaluation guidance. There were differences in terminology and areas of agreement and disagreement between the guidelines. Disagreement between guidelines involved (1) the community included in the societal perspective; (2) the number of options that should be appraised in ex ante analyses; (3) the appropriate time horizon for interventions with longer economic lives; (4) the theoretical basis and value of the discount rate; (5) parameter values for variables such as the value of a statistical life; and (6) the summary measure for decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: This paper addresses some of the methodological challenges that have hindered the use of CBA in prevention by outlining a framework that is consistent with treasury department guidelines whilst considering the unique features of prevention policies. The effective use and implementation of a preventive health CBA framework is likely to require considerable investment of time and resources from state and federal government departments of health and treasury but has the potential to improve decision-making related to preventive health policies and programmes.

Stakeholder perceptions of current practices and challenges in priority setting for non-communicable disease control in Kenya: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the stakeholders' perceptions of current practices and challenges in priority setting for non-communicable disease (NCD) control in Kenya. DESIGN: A qualitative study approach conducted within a 1-day stakeholder workshop that followed a deliberative dialogue process. SETTING: Study was conducted within a 1-day stakeholder workshop that was held in October 2019 in Nairobi, Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Stakeholders who currently participate in the national level policymaking process for health in Kenya. OUTCOME MEASURE: Priority setting process for NCD control in Kenya. RESULTS: Donor funding was identified as a key factor that informed the priority setting process for NCD control. Misalignment between donors' priorities and the country's priorities for NCD control was seen as a hindrance to the process. It was identified that there was minimal utilisation of context-specific evidence from locally conducted research. Additional factors seen to inform the priority setting process included political leadership, government policies and budget allocation for NCDs, stakeholder engagement, media, people's cultural and religious beliefs. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for development aid partners to align their priorities to the specific NCD control priority areas that exist in the countries that they extend aid to. Additionally, context-specific scientific evidence on effective local interventions for NCD control is required to inform areas of priority in Kenya and other low-income and middle-income countries. Further research is needed to develop best practice guidelines and tools for the creation of national-level priority setting frameworks that are responsive to the identified factors that inform the priority setting process for NCD control.

Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders. METHODS: Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037). FINDINGS: Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.8% in 2017 to 5.58% in 2037. A sustained 50% increase in antismoking advertising exposure from 2018 reduces projected prevalence in 2037 by 0.80 percentage points. Similar reductions are projected with the introduction of tobacco wholesaler and retailer licensing schemes that either permit or prohibit tobacco sales by alcohol-licensed venues (0.65 and 1.73 percentage points, respectively). Increasing the minimum age of legal supply of tobacco products substantially reduces adolescent initiation, but has minimal impact on smoking prevalence in the adult population over the simulation period. Sustained reductions in antismoking advertising exposure of 50% and 100% from 2018 increase projected adult daily smoking prevalence in 2037 by 0.88 and 1.98 percentage points, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that any prudent approach to endgame planning should seek to build on rather than replace existing tobacco control measures that have proved effective to date. Additional interventions that can promote cessation are expected to be more successful in reducing smoking prevalence than interventions focussing exclusively on preventing initiation.

Health services costs for lung cancer care in Australia: Estimates from the 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Of all cancer types, healthcare for lung cancer is the third most costly in Australia, but there is little detailed information about these costs. Our aim was to provide detailed population-based estimates of health system costs for lung cancer care, as a benchmark prior to wider availability of targeted therapies/immunotherapy and to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of lung cancer screening and other interventions in Australia. METHODS: Health system costs were estimated for incident lung cancers in the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort, diagnosed between recruitment (2006-2009) and 2013. Costs to June 2016 included services reimbursed via the Medicare Benefits Schedule, medicines reimbursed via the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, inpatient hospitalisations, and emergency department presentations. Costs for cases and matched, cancer-free controls were compared to derive excess costs of care. Costs were disaggregated by patient and tumour characteristics. Data for more recent cases identified in hospital records provided preliminary information on targeted therapy/immunotherapy. RESULTS: 994 eligible cases were diagnosed with lung cancer 2006-2013; 51% and 74% died within one and three years respectively. Excess costs from one-year pre-diagnosis to three years post-diagnosis averaged ~$51,900 per case. Observed costs were higher for cases diagnosed at age 45-59 ($67,700) or 60-69 ($63,500), and lower for cases aged ≥80 ($29,500) and those with unspecified histology ($31,700) or unknown stage ($36,500). Factors associated with lower costs generally related to shorter survival: older age (p<0.0001), smoking (p<0.0001) and unknown stage (p = 0.002). There was no evidence of differences by year of diagnosis or sex (both p>0.50). For 465 cases diagnosed 2014-2015, 29% had subsidised molecular testing for targeted therapy/immunotherapy and 4% had subsidised targeted therapies. CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer healthcare costs are strongly associated with survival-related factors. Costs appeared stable over the period 2006-2013. This study provides a framework for evaluating the health/economic impact of introducing lung cancer screening and other interventions in Australia.

What Is the Best Practice Method for Quantifying the Health and Economic Benefits of Active Transport?

The aim of this study was to identify a best practice method to cost the health benefits of active transport for use in infrastructure planning in New South Wales, Australia. We systematically reviewed the international literature covering the concept areas of active transport and cost and health benefits. Original publications describing a method to cost the health benefits of active transport, published in 2000-2019 were included. Studies meeting the inclusion criteria were assessed against criteria identified in interviews with key government stakeholders. A total of 2993 studies were identified, 53 were assessed for eligibility, and 19 were included in the review. The most commonly studied active transport modes were cycling (n = 8) and walking and cycling (n = 6). Exposures considered were physical activity, road transport related injuries and air pollution. The most often applied economic evaluation method was cost benefit analysis (n = 8), and costs were commonly calculated by monetising health outcomes. Based on evaluation of models against the criteria, a Multistate Life Table model was recommended as the best method currently available. There is strong and increasing interest in quantifying and costing the health benefits of active transport internationally. Incorporating health-related economic benefits into existing regulatory processes such as cost benefit analyses could provide an effective way to encourage the non-health sector to include health impacts in infrastructure measures.

Correction: Modelled health benefits of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax across different socioeconomic groups in Australia: A cost-effectiveness and equity analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002326.].

Priority-setting for obesity prevention-The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of obesity prevention policies in Australia (ACE-Obesity Policy) study.

The aim of the ACE-Obesity Policy study was to assess the economic credentials of a suite of obesity prevention policies across multiple sectors and areas of governance for the Australian setting. The study aimed to place the cost-effectiveness results within a broad decision-making context by providing an assessment of the key considerations for policy implementation. The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) approach to priority-setting was used. Systematic literature reviews were undertaken to assess the evidence of intervention effectiveness on body mass index and/or physical activity for selected interventions. A standardised evaluation framework was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of each intervention compared to a 'no intervention' comparator, from a limited societal perspective. A multi-state life table Markov cohort model was used to estimate the long-term health impacts (quantified as health adjusted life years (HALYs)) and health care cost-savings resulting from each intervention. In addition to the technical cost-effectiveness results, qualitative assessments of implementation considerations were undertaken. All 16 interventions evaluated were found to be cost-effective (using a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD50,000 per HALY gained). Eleven interventions were dominant (health promoting and cost-saving). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the non-dominant interventions ranged from AUD1,728 to 28,703 per HALY gained. Regulatory interventions tended to rank higher on their cost-effectiveness results, driven by lower implementation costs. However, the program-based policy interventions were generally based on higher quality evidence of intervention effectiveness. This comparative analysis of the economic credentials of obesity prevention policies for Australia indicates that there are a broad range of policies that are likely to be cost-effective, although policy options vary in strength of evidence for effectiveness, affordability, feasibility, acceptability to stakeholders, equity impact and sustainability. Implementation of these policies will require sustained co-ordination across jurisdictions and multiple government sectors in order to generate the predicted health benefits for the Australian population.

The macroeconomic impacts of diet-related fiscal policy for NCD prevention: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Diet-related fiscal policies are effective interventions to address non-communicable disease. However, despite these being economic policy instruments, there is little public health attention given to the evidence of macroeconomic impacts. This review aims to assess the global evidence for the macroeconomic impact of diet-related fiscal policies for non-communicable disease prevention on industry revenue, government revenue and employment. METHODS: For this systematic review we comprehensively searched the bibliographic databases MEDLINE, OvidSP, EMBASE, Global Health, SCOPUS, CINAHL and ECONLIT, and Google Scholar for English peer-reviewed studies or grey literature, with no date cut-off. Global interventions with a focus on diet-related fiscal strategies were assessed for the outcomes of industry revenue, gross domestic product, government revenue and employment. We excluded non-English papers. FINDINGS: Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies were on sugar sweetened beverage taxation and one also included an energy-dense food tax. Nine were modelling studies and two used interrupted time series analysis based on empirical evidence. One study found potential employment increases because of taxation; two found no significant job losses and eight found reduced employment. Taxes reduced sales volume and revenue within the sugar/beverage industry. Government revenue generation was positive in all studies. One study considered redistribution of consumer and government spending to other goods and services; INTERPRETATION: We found no robust evidence for negative macroeconomic impacts of diet-related fiscal policies, likely a reflection of the limited methodology used in the analyses. This review suggests that there is a need for more high-quality research into the macroeconomic impacts of diet related fiscal measures and similar to tobacco taxation, government should consider directing revenue generated towards complementary measures to generate employment and/or provide livelihood training for those affected.

Availability, Price, and Affordability of Essential Medicines to Manage Noncommunicable Diseases: A National Survey From Nepal.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the availability, price, and affordability of essential noncommunicable disease (NCD) medicines in Nepal. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Nepal in 2015 using World Health Organization/Health Action International (WHO/HAI) methodology. We collected data on the availability and price of 60 essential NCD medicines from medicine distribution outlets in both the public and private health care sectors in 6 regions. Essential NCD medicines were more available in the private sector (78%) than the public sector (60%). Furosemide tablets were the cheapest (NPR 0.6/10 tablets) and streptokinase injections were the most expensive (NPR 2200/vial) drugs. There was no significant difference (P > .05) in availability and affordability of essential NCD medicines across the 6 survey areas. Treating selected NCD conditions with medicines was generally affordable, with 1 month of treatment costing no more than a day's wage of the lowest paid unskilled government worker. The lower availability of NCD medicines in the public sector limits the effectiveness of the government's policy of providing free health services at public facilities. Although NCD medicines were generally affordable, future health policy should aim to ensure improved equitable access to NCD medicines, particularly in public facilities.

Indirect costs of depression and other mental and behavioural disorders for Australia from 2015 to 2030.

BACKGROUND: The impact of mental disorders has been assessed in relation to longevity and quality of life; however, mental disorders also have an impact on productive life-years (PLYs). AIMS: To quantify the long-term costs of Australians aged 45-64 having lost PLYs because of mental disorders. METHOD: The Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population of Health&WealthMOD2030 - a microsimulation model integrating output from the Static Incomes Model, the Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model, the Treasury and the Australian Burden of Disease Study. RESULTS: For depression, individuals incurred a loss of AU$1062 million in income in 2015, projected to increase to AU$1539 million in 2030 (45% increase). The government is projected to incur costs comprising a 22% increase in social security payments and a 45% increase in lost taxes as a result of depression through its impact on PLYs. CONCLUSIONS: Effectiveness of mental health programmes should be judged not only in terms of healthcare use but also quality of life and economic well-being. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax and their impact on cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the productivity impacts of a policy intervention on the prevention of premature mortality due to obesity. METHODS: A simulation model of the Australian population over the period from 2003 to 2030 was developed to estimate productivity gains associated with premature deaths averted due to an obesity prevention intervention that applied a 10% tax on unhealthy foods. Outcome measures were the total working years gained, and the present value of lifetime income (PVLI) gained. Impacts were modelled over the period from 2003 to 2030. Costs are reported in 2018 Australian dollars and a 3% discount rate was applied to all future benefits. RESULTS: Premature deaths averted due to a junk food tax accounted for over 8,000 additional working years and a $307 million increase in PVLI. Deaths averted in men between the ages of 40 to 59, and deaths averted from ischaemic heart disease, were responsible for the largest gains. CONCLUSIONS: The productivity gains associated with a junk food tax are substantial, accounting for almost twice the value of the estimated savings to the health care system. The results we have presented provide evidence that the adoption of a societal perspective, when compared to a health sector perspective, provides a more comprehensive estimate of the cost-effectiveness of a junk food tax.

The indirect costs of ischemic heart disease through lost productive life years for Australia from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Most studies measure the impact of ischemic heart disease (IHD) on individuals using quality of life metrics such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); however, IHD also has an enormous impact on productive life years (PLYs). The objective of this study was to project the indirect costs of IHD resulting from lost PLYs to older Australian workers (45-64 years), government, and society 2015-2030. METHODS: Nationally representative data from the Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (2003, 2009) were used to develop the base population in the microsimulation model (Health&WealthMOD2030), which integrated data from established microsimulation models (STINMOD, APPSIM), Treasury's population and workforce projections, and chronic conditions trends. RESULTS: We projected that 6700 people aged 45-64 were out of the labour force due to IHD in 2015, increasing to 8100 in 2030 (21 increase). National costs consisted of a loss of AU$273 (US$263) million in income for people with IHD in 2015, increasing to AU$443 ($US426) million (62% increase). For the government, extra welfare payments increased from AU$106 (US$102) million in 2015 to AU$143 (US$138) million in 2030 (35% increase); and lost income tax revenue increased from AU$74 (US$71) million in 2015 to AU$117 (US$113) million in 2030 (58% increase). A loss of AU$785 (US$755) million in GDP was projected for 2015, increasing to AU$1125 (US$1082) million in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Significant costs of IHD through lost productivity are incurred by individuals, the government, and society. The benefits of IHD interventions include not only improved health but also potentially economic benefits as workforce capacity.

Health promotion at the workplace setting: a protocol for a systematic review of effectiveness and sustainability of current practice in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a growing disease burden due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Changing behavioural practices, such as diets high in saturated fat, salt and sugar and sedentary lifestyles, have been associated with the increase in NCDs. Health promotion at the workplace setting is considered effective in the fight against NCDs and has been reported to yield numerous benefits. However, there is a need to generate evidence on the effectiveness and sustainability of workplace health promotion practice specific to LMICs. We aim to synthesise the current literature on workplace health promotion in LMICs focusing on interventions effectiveness and sustainability. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a systematic review of published studies from LMICs up to 31 March 2019. We will search the following databases: EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest and CINAHL. Two reviewers will independently screen potential articles for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by consensus. We will appraise the quality and risk of bias of included studies using two tools from the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions. We will present a narrative overview and assessment of the body of evidence derived from the comprehensive review of the studies. The reported outcomes will be summarised by study design, duration, intensity/frequency of intervention delivery and by the six-priority health promotion action areas set out in the Ottawa Charter. We will conduct a thematic analysis to identify the focus areas of current interventions. This systematic review protocol has been prepared according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta- analyses for Protocols 2015 statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study does not require ethics approval. We will disseminate the results of this review through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018110853.

Health services costs for cancer care in Australia: Estimates from the 45 and Up Study.

BACKGROUND: Cancer care represents a substantial and rapidly rising healthcare cost in Australia. Our aim was to provide accurate population-based estimates of the health services cost of cancer care using large-scale linked patient-level data. METHODS: We analysed data for incident cancers diagnosed 2006-2010 and followed to 2014 among 266,793 eligible participants in the 45 and Up Study. Health system costs included Medicare and pharmaceutical claims, inpatient hospital episodes and emergency department presentations. Costs for cancer cases and matched cancer-free controls were compared, to estimate monthly/annual excess costs of cancer care by cancer type, before and after diagnosis and by phase of care (initial, continuing, terminal). Total costs incurred in 2013 were also estimated for all people diagnosed in Australia 2009-2013. RESULTS: 7624 participants diagnosed with cancer were matched with up to three controls. The mean excess cost of care per case was AUD$1,622 for the year before diagnosis, $33,944 for the first year post-diagnosis and $8,796 for the second year post-diagnosis, with considerable variation by cancer type. Mean annual cost after the initial treatment phase was $4,474/case and the mean cost for the last year of life was $49,733/case. In 2013 the cost for cancers among people in Australia diagnosed during 2009-2013 was ~$6.3billion (0.4% of Gross Domestic Product; $272 per capita), with the largest costs for colorectal cancer ($1.1billion), breast cancer ($0.8billion), lung cancer ($0.6billion) and prostate cancer ($0.5billion). CONCLUSIONS: The cost of cancer care is substantial and varies by cancer type and time since diagnosis. These findings emphasise the economic importance of effective primary and secondary cancer prevention strategies.

The Potential Cost-Effectiveness and Equity Impacts of Restricting Television Advertising of Unhealthy Food and Beverages to Australian Children.

Television (TV) advertising of food and beverages high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) influences food preferences and consumption. Children from lower socioeconomic position (SEP) have higher exposure to TV advertising due to more time spent watching TV. This paper sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness of legislation to restrict HFSS TV advertising until 9:30 pm, and to examine how health benefits and healthcare cost-savings differ by SEP. Cost-effectiveness modelling was undertaken (i) at the population level, and (ii) by area-level SEP. A multi-state multiple-cohort lifetable model was used to estimate obesity-related health outcomes and healthcare cost-savings over the lifetime of the 2010 Australian population. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported, with assumptions tested through sensitivity analyses. An intervention restricting HFSS TV advertising would cost AUD5.9M (95% UI AUD5.8M⁻AUD7M), resulting in modelled reductions in energy intake (mean 115 kJ/day) and body mass index (BMI) (mean 0.352 kg/m²). The intervention is likely to be cost-saving, with 1.4 times higher total cost-savings and 1.5 times higher health benefits in the most disadvantaged socioeconomic group (17,512 HALYs saved (95% UI 10,372⁻25,155); total cost-savings AUD126.3M (95% UI AUD58.7M⁻196.9M) over the lifetime) compared to the least disadvantaged socioeconomic group (11,321 HALYs saved (95% UI 6812⁻15,679); total cost-savings AUD90.9M (95% UI AUD44.3M⁻136.3M)). Legislation to restrict HFSS TV advertising is likely to be cost-effective, with greater health benefits and healthcare cost-savings for children with low SEP.

The long-term economic impacts of arthritis through lost productive life years: results from an Australian microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: While the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health. METHODS: Respondents aged 45-64 in the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population. We projected the indirect costs of arthritis using Health&WealthMOD2030 - Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health in older workers - which incorporated outputs from established microsimulation models (STINMOD and APPSIM), population and labour force projections from Treasury, and chronic conditions trends for Australia. All costs of arthritis were expressed in real 2013 Australian dollars, adjusted for inflation over time. RESULTS: We estimated there are 54,000 people aged 45-64 with lost PLYs due to arthritis in 2015, increasing to 61,000 in 2030 (13% increase). In 2015, people with lost PLYs are estimated to receive AU$706.12 less in total income and AU$311.67 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without arthritis, and pay no income tax on average. National costs include an estimated loss of AU$1.5 billion in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$2.4 billion in 2030 (59% increase). Lost annual taxation revenue was projected to increase from AU$0.4 billion in 2015 to $0.5 billion in 2030 (56% increase). We projected a loss in GDP of AU$6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$8.2 billion in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: Significant costs of arthritis through lost PLYs are incurred by individuals and government. The effectiveness of arthritis interventions should be judged not only on healthcare use but quality of life and economic wellbeing.

Use of Healthcare Services by Patients with Non-Communicable Diseases in Nepal: A Qualitative Study with Healthcare Providers.

INTRODUCTION: The healthcare systems in many Low-and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) like Nepal have long focused on preventing and treating infectious diseases. Little is known about their preparedness to address the increasing prevalence of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs). AIM: This study aimed to investigate the use of healthcare services by patients with NCDs in Nepal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nine healthcare providers (including health assistants, pharmacy assistants, nurse, specialised nurse, practicing pharmacists, chief hospital pharmacist, doctors and specialised doctor) from Pokhara, Nepal, were recruited using purposive sampling. In depth interviews about the magnitude of NCDs, first point of care, screening and diagnosis, prevention and management, follow-up, and healthcare system responses to NCD burden were conducted. Data were thematically analysed with a deductive approach. RESULTS: Although the healthcare system in Nepal is still primarily focused on communicable infectious diseases, healthcare providers are aware of the increasing burden of NCDs and NCD risk factors. The first points of care for patients with NCDs are government primary healthcare facilities and private pharmacies. NCDs are often diagnosed late and opportunistically. NCD prevention and treatment is unaffordable for many people. There are no government sponsored NCD screening programs. CONCLUSION: There are problems associated with screening, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of patients with NCDs in Nepal. Healthcare providers believe that the current healthcare system in Nepal is inadequate to address the growing problem of NCDs. The health system of Nepal will face challenges to incorporate programs to prevent and treat NCDs in addition to the pre-existing communicable diseases.

Modelled health benefits of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax across different socioeconomic groups in Australia: A cost-effectiveness and equity analysis.

BACKGROUND: A sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax in Mexico has been effective in reducing consumption of SSBs, with larger decreases for low-income households. The health and financial effects across socioeconomic groups are important considerations for policy-makers. From a societal perspective, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and financial impacts by socioeconomic position (SEP) of a 20% SSB tax for Australia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Australia-specific price elasticities were used to predict decreases in SSB consumption for each Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile. Changes in body mass index (BMI) were based on SSB consumption, BMI from the Australian Health Survey 2011-12, and energy balance equations. Markov cohort models were used to estimate the health impact for the Australian population, taking into account obesity-related diseases. Health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, healthcare costs saved, and out-of-pocket costs were estimated for each SEIFA quintile. Loss of economic welfare was calculated as the amount of deadweight loss in excess of taxation revenue. A 20% SSB tax would lead to HALY gains of 175,300 (95% CI: 68,700; 277,800) and healthcare cost savings of AU$1,733 million (m) (95% CI: $650m; $2,744m) over the lifetime of the population, with 49.5% of the total health gains accruing to the 2 lowest quintiles. We estimated the increase in annual expenditure on SSBs to be AU$35.40/capita (0.54% of expenditure on food and non-alcoholic drinks) in the lowest SEIFA quintile, a difference of AU$3.80/capita (0.32%) compared to the highest quintile. Annual tax revenue was estimated at AU$642.9m (95% CI: $348.2m; $1,117.2m). The main limitations of this study, as with all simulation models, is that the results represent only the best estimate of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that from a 20% tax on SSBs, the most HALYs gained and healthcare costs saved would accrue to the most disadvantaged quintiles in Australia. Whilst those in more disadvantaged areas would pay more SSB tax, the difference between areas is small. The equity of the tax could be further improved if the tax revenue were used to fund initiatives benefiting those with greater disadvantage.